Abelian Analysis

The Quiet Run Eight Funds. Four Sponsors. One Pattern. I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On March 3, 2026, Blackstone Private Credit Fund — the largest non-traded private credit vehicle in the world, with $82B in assets under management — reported its first-ever net outflows — more money redeemed than raised. $3.7 billion walked out the door. $2 billion walked in. The difference — $1.7 billion — represents something that has never happened before in the fund’s history. ...

Paper, Silicon, and Crude How the Iran Conflict Connects to the AI Supply Chain I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On March 1, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a full-spectrum military campaign against Iran — airstrikes on nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and naval assets, concurrent with the confirmed killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and approximately 40 senior officials. This is not a Soleimani-style targeted strike. It is a stated regime change operation, building on the June 2025 nuclear facility strikes and weeks of visible military buildup. ...

CoreWeave: Caught Between Paper and Silicon CoreWeave’s Race Against Physical Reality I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The AI infrastructure buildout is the largest capital expenditure cycle in human history. Hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing through a supply chain that converts financial commitments — contracts, leases, debt — into physical infrastructure: GPUs racked in data centers, running workloads, generating revenue. The conversion works as long as every link in the chain keeps pace. If any link slows down, the financial obligations don’t pause. They compound. ...

Joby’s Dream and Flying Cars The Patents Are Clever. The Physics Don’t Care. I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Joby Aviation is attempting something that has never been done: build a commercially viable, hydrogen fuel cell-powered eVTOL aircraft, certify it under regulatory frameworks that do not yet exist, and bring it to market before the company’s cash runway expires. We are short JOBY. The company trades at a $9.5B market capitalization — roughly the same as American Airlines, which flies 200 million passengers a year on nearly 1,000 aircraft. Joby has never flown a paying passenger. It has never certified an aircraft. Its hydrogen fuel cell eVTOL exists, as of this writing, primarily as a portfolio of patents and a burn rate. ...

Carvana: The Return of Subprime Auto in Prime Clothing Why the 10,000% Rally from $4 to $415 is Built on Deteriorating Credit and a Fragile Securitization Model I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Carvana’s 10,000% rally from $4 to $415 is being celebrated as one of the greatest comeback stories in market history. We believe it is built on a foundation of deteriorating credit quality that the market has not yet recognized, hidden behind a “prime” ABS designation that was never an accurate description of the underlying collateral — and is becoming less so by the quarter. ...