Paper, Silicon, and Crude

Paper, Silicon, and Crude How the Iran Conflict Connects to the AI Supply Chain I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On March 1, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a full-spectrum military campaign against Iran — airstrikes on nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and naval assets, concurrent with the confirmed killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and approximately 40 senior officials. This is not a Soleimani-style targeted strike. It is a stated regime change operation, building on the June 2025 nuclear facility strikes and weeks of visible military buildup. ...

March 1, 2026 · 29 min · Tyler Lukasiewicz

CoreWeave: Caught Between Paper and Silicon

CoreWeave: Caught Between Paper and Silicon CoreWeave’s Race Against Physical Reality I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The AI infrastructure buildout is the largest capital expenditure cycle in human history. Hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing through a supply chain that converts financial commitments — contracts, leases, debt — into physical infrastructure: GPUs racked in data centers, running workloads, generating revenue. The conversion works as long as every link in the chain keeps pace. If any link slows down, the financial obligations don’t pause. They compound. ...

February 27, 2026 · 27 min · Tyler Lukasiewicz